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Real-time $R_t$ of COVID-19 pandemic in Texas (Until Oct 07)

This report estimates the county level real-time effective production number ($R_t$) of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas, based on data from the Texas Health and Human Services. This report is updated daily with the most recent version available at the ICTR website.

This report is created and maintained by data scientists from the Institute for Clinical & Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, with an algorithm that is based on Kevin Systrom's work for the US data. Please refer to the original report for details.

Plotting in the Time Domain with Credible Intervals

Since our results include uncertainty, we'd like to be able to view the most likely value of $R_t$ along with its highest-density interval.

Now that we have all the log likelihoods, we can sum for each value of sigma across counties, graph it, then choose the maximum.

Compile Final Results

Given that we've selected the optimal $\sigma$, let's grab the precalculated posterior corresponding to that value of $\sigma$ for each county. Let's also calculate the 90% and 50% highest density intervals (this takes a little while) and also the most likely value.

Daily new cases and real time $R_t$ for Texas Medical Center

Here are estimated $R_t$ in the past 15 days:

Daily new cases and real time $R_t$ for Harris County

Here are estimated $R_t$ in the past 15 days:

Daily new cases and real time $R_t$ for all Texas counties

Export Data to CSV

Most recent $R_t$ by county